There was a time, shortly after World War Two, when Wales’ record against the All Blacks was something to make the nation proud: a 75% win-rate, only one defeat in half a century to the men in black.
And then the next 61 years happened. There are bad runs in sport, ghastly hoodoos impermeable to passing years or pity, and there is Wales against New Zealand since 1953.
Played 25, lost 25.
It is the longest losing sequence against one opponent in tier-one Test history. Sure, Ireland and Scotland have never beaten the All Blacks at all. But both have at least drawn, and – with five Grand Slams between them to Wales’ 11 – neither have they shared the same burden of expectation.
Occasionally it has been close: the 26-25 heart-breaker a decade ago, the 19-12 defeat five years later that might just have been different had Alun Wyn Jones not run horribly out of steam when cantering towards an unguarded try line.
Most of the time it has not. The average winning margin is 20 points.
So how can Wales possibly hope to overturn a side widely being touted as possibly the greatest ever? It’s not logically possible. Or is it?
‘Fear can make you freeze, or it can inspire’
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. In 2014 alone, New Zealand are averaging seven points a game more than Wales. In all matches between the two sides, they have scored more than four times as many tries.
When England’s – and Wales’ – cricketers ended an 18-year hoodoo of their own against Australia in 2005, much weight was given to that young side’s lack of scar tissue against their mighty opposition. No baggage, no fear.
Well, Alun Wyn Jones and Mike Phillips have finished on the losing side against the All Blacks six times. Leigh Halfpenny, Jamie Roberts, Paul James and James Hook have all been beaten five times.
Isn’t intimidation inevitable under such circumstances?
“When you’re in camp, surrounded by your team-mates, you actually worry about it less,” says Martyn Williams, who knows a little of these things having suffered seven defeats by the All Blacks among his 100 caps.
