This weekend decides the Dialog A Division League. It’s simple as that. If Navy win this weekend, they win the tournament. If they lose, they maybe champions next week.
Here’s how it works. If Navy win, they are champs regardless of what happens next weekend. If Navy lose, and they also lose to Havies next week, and Kandy win their last match handsomely, then Kandy will win.
So this weekend’s match between Navy and Kandy, is pretty much the title.
Kandy v Navy
The home ground advantage is already with the Navy. That will make them slight favourites in my book as they are very very difficult to beat at Welisara. Kandy also don’t travel well. They got hammered last year at Havelock Park in the title decider, and if they come a cropper on Saturday, it won’t be the first time they’ve not lived up to expectations. So before the game starts, the pressure will be on them.
That being said, both teams play very similar styles of rugby. They have plenty of pace and like to attack from turnover ball, or run back the kick. If Navy go with Tupuailai and Cakau in the centres that will make them very difficult to stop. They will be up against a good defensive unit in Weeraratne and Halaifonua, but the sailors are very very strong. It could be an interesting matchup.
If at all, the problem for both sides is the inability to create from first phase. Both teams have shown that they cannot execute when running at an organised defence. If a team manages to score off first phase early on, it could result in panic in the opposition ranks.
Where Kandy are superior is in their halves combination. Captain Roshan Weeraratne and veteran Fazil Marija will have a lot of responsbility to exploit their less experienced opponents. If these two up their game both offensively and defensively, the match will go down to the wire. The set piece is likely to be dominated by the heavier, more experienced Navy side and as long as Chandimal has a steady day, there should be no real problems taking the ball forward. Kandy will probably have less ball and will need to make their counter attack count. With the Japanese referee being called upon, it will be interesting to see if a lot of advantage is played, as the Kandy lads might have a little more in the tank at the end of the game,
It will be a massive battle and likely to be won on the coaches bench. Whoever gets their tactics right on the day will take the game.
Army v CR
Once again home ground advantage will be with Army. CR have struggled in the second round and are yet to win a match after the turnaround. Their season began with much promise, but has somehow stagnated.
Army on the other hand have got their losing bonus points from all except their last game against Havelocks. They have mustered up some new foreign players and have been scoring tries even in matches that they have lost. This game will be a match up of two very evenly matched sides, and how CR manage the line breakers in the Army foreign players will dictate how this game goes.
It is a match in which CR will have to kick well in order to play less rugby in their own half. Army have great fitness and will keep running until the end. Once again, execution off first phase will be key to how this game is decided.
Havelocks v Upcountry Lions
The Lions may just sense a kill against a Havies team that has dropped their heads now that they are out of the title race. Up in Nawalapitiya, the home advantage may help the team that is slightly more used to the conditions.
However, to lose, Havies will have to play exceptionally badly, as their forward pack should be able to dominate the Lions forwards. If the Sooriyabandara magic show doesn’t pull a few rabbits out of the hat, Havelocks should manage to win this one. But the first round game was closer than Havies would have liked.
The Lions are also locked in a 3 way battle for fourth place, and they will know that a win against the big opponent will almost cement that position for them. An upset? Almost.
