IT’S that time of the year again when Australian rugby optimists believe the tide will turn and it will finally be the Wallabies’ year.
It’s that time of year when Australian pessimists discount the Wallabies’ chances, drawing back to the fundamental weaknesses ingrained in Australia’s set-piece and the forwards.
It’s also that time of year when Australian realists recount New Zealand’s 12-year domination of the Bledisloe Cup, their trio of Rugby Championship victories since 2012, and the all-New Zealand 2015 Super Rugby final which indicates that Australians are set to endure more pain.
But all the speculation about team make-ups and chances of success will come to an end this weekend as the Rugby Championship kicks off.
We look at the preparations of the four nations and what to expect from the opening round of matches.
AUSTRALIA
A cold front has hit the eastern seaboard of Australia and with that a new era of Australian rugby has been swept in — the Michael Cheika era.
Gone are the days when the Wallabies only selected Australian-based Super Rugby players.
Toulon’s Australian paring of Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell are set to be included in the Wallabies squad for Saturday’s season-opener against the Springboks, with the former expected to be thrown right into the thick of things at inside centre.
Hooker Stephen Moore has deservedly regained the captaincy, following his heartbreaking season-ending injury just minutes into his first Test as captain against the French in Brisbane last year.
The two big questions ahead of Thursday’s team announcement are whether David Pocock will unseat Michael Hooper at openside flanker, and will the Reds’ halves paring of Quade Cooper and Will Genia get first crack over the incumbents Bernard Foley and Nick Phipps, whose reputations suffered greatly after forgettable appearances in the Super Rugby semi-final.
In true Cheika fashion, the coach hasn’t given much away since trimming the squad from 40 players to 31 last Friday.
But Cooper reportedly shone in training while the Wallabies put an emphasis on establishing team culture and expectations ahead of the Test season.
Player to watch: David Pocock — his last Test was back in 2012 and the Brumbies flanker will look to re-establish himself on the world scene after two season-ending knee injuries.
Squad: Rory Arnold, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Quade Cooper, Scott Fardy, Israel Folau, Bernard Foley, Will Genia, Matt Giteau, Scott Higginbotham, Greg Holmes, Michael Hooper, Rob Horne, James Horwill, Sekope Kepu, Tevita Kuridrani, Stephen Moore (c), Drew Mitchell, Ben McCalman, Sean McMahon, Dean Mumm, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Nick Phipps, David Pocock, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Scott Sio, Rob Simmons, Will Skelton, James Slipper, Matt Toomua, Joe Tomane
NEW ZEALAND
Their Test season is underway and, unsurprisingly, underway with a 25-16 win.
But the All Blacks — missing 17 players from the Hurricanes and Highlanders — were made to work hard in the historic Test against Samoa in Apia.
Dan Carter booted his side to victory, netting 20 points in a solid game from the veteran.
Fullback Israel Dagg made his return after an injury-plagued 2015, but will likely make way for Ben Smith in Friday’s match against Argentina.
Coach Steve Hansen has begun integrating his Hurricanes and Highlanders this week but said uncapped five-eighth Lima Sopoaga would need to spend more time familiarising himself with the All Blacks’ structures before being let loose.
Despite their rusty performance against Samoa, the All Blacks haven’t lost at home since 2009 and have never lost to Argentina.
It’s hard to see that changing on Friday.
Player to watch: Waisake Naholo — it’s a matter of time before Naholo gets presented with his first All Blacks jersey after the Highlanders winger set the Super Rugby season alight with 13 tries.
Squad: Israel Dagg, Ben Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Charles Piutau, Cory Jane, Waisake Naholo, Julian Savea, Conrad Smith, Malakai Fekitoa, Ryan Crotty, Ma’a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade, Lima Sopoaga, Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Kieran Read, Victor Vito, Richie McCaw (c), Sam Cane, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam, Matt Todd, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Jeremy Thrush, Luke Romano, James Broadhurst, Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Tony Woodcock, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Keven Mealamu, Codie Taylor, Hika Elliot
SOUTH AFRICA
Beware the sleeping Boks.
South Africa haven’t won The Rugby Championship (formerly the Tri-Nations) since 2009 but were highly competitive last season.
They ended New Zealand’s 22-match unbeaten streak at home and also came precariously close to knocking them off in Wellington, downed 14-10 after leading at the break.
South Africa endured a miserable 2015 Super Rugby campaign, with only the Stormers scraping into the finals.
But the Springboks made a promising start to their campaign by trouncing a makeshift World XV 46-10 on Sunday.
World XV coach Robbie Deans was impressed, labelling the Springboks “positive and ambitious.”
Former South Africa captain Jean de Villiers made a positive return in his comeback from a long-term injury, but coach Heyneke Meyer has resisted the temptation to include the centre in his squad to face the Wallabies.
He will instead play provincial rugby to build upon his match fitness with Meyer likely to start with the centre combination of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel.
Veteran lock Victor Matfield will captain the Boks’ 31-man squad in Australia.
Player to watch: Jesse Kriel — he may have only managed one try in 2015, but the Bulls’ 21-year-old fullback has been shifted to outside centre and Meyer believes he could become one of the Springboks’ greatest No 13’s.
Squad: Schalk Brits, Schalk Burger, Marcell Coetzee, Damian De Allende, Lood de Jager, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Bryan Habana, Vincent Koch, Jesse Kriel, Patrick Lambie, Willie le Roux, Francois Louw, Frans Malherbe, Victor Matfield (c), Lionel Mapoe, Teboho Oupa Mohoje, Tendai Mtawarira, Lwazi Mvovo, Trevor Nyakane, Rudy Paige, Ruan Pienaar, JP Pietersen, Handré Pollard, Cobus Reinach, Jan Serfontein, Morne Steyn, Adriaan Strauss, Heinke van der Merwe, Warren Whiteley.
ARGENTINA
Argentina has travelled to New Zealand without a number of its established players.
Headlining the absentees is Toulon’s 32-year-old fullback Juan Martín Hernández, who is being rested.
Two other members of the Pumas side that beat the Wallabies in Mendoza last year, Tomás Lavanini and Leonardo Senatore, will also miss the All Blacks clash, along with Pablo Matera.
Argentina’s coach Daniel Hourcade named a 28-man squad for the All Blacks Test and said further changes would be made before his side’s next meeting with the Wallabies on Saturday week.
Argentina is featured in the same pool as the All Blacks in this year’s World Cup.
Bearing that in mind, it would seem Hourcade is looking past the Rugby Championship and keeping his powder dry for the World Cup.
Player to watch: Nicolas Sanchez — he started at five-eighth for the Pumas in their historic win over the Wallabies last year and has just left Matt Giteau’s Toulon to join Argentina’s first Super Rugby team.
Squad: Horacio Agulla, Matias Alemanno, Marcos Ayerza, Marcelo Bosch, Manuel Carizza, Santiago Cordero, Agustin Creevy (c), Tomás Cubelli, Jeronimo De la Fuente, Matias Diaz, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Ramiro Herrera, Juan Imhoff, Facundo Isa, Martín Landajo, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Benjamin Macome, Julian Montoya, Matias Moroni, Lucas Noguera, Javier Ortega Desio, Guido Petti, Nicolas Sanchez, Juan Pablo Socino, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Joaquin Tucule.
DRAW
July 17: New Zealand v Argentina, Christchurch. Kick-off 5:35pm
July 18: Australia v South Africa, Brisbane. Kick-off 8:05pm
July 26: South Africa v New Zealand, Johannesburg. Kick-off 1:05am
July 26: Argentina v Australia, Mendoza. Kick-off 8.40am
August 8: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney. Kick-off 8.05pm
August 9: South Africa v Argentina, Durban. Kick-off 1.05am
