The good, the bad and the ugly

Statistical Schools’ rugby story of the season 2018

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Schools Rugby

In the epic, Sergio Leone- spaghetti Western, which is best known for its intriguing theme music, a complete departure from the norm with its three legendary characters, Clint Eastwood, Eli Wallach, and Lee Van Cleef, all legends in their own right– play The man with no name (Blondie), Tuco and Angel eyes.

Eventually staring each other down for a quick draw showdown, where only two men walk away. One man with almost all the gold, another with his life and the third, nothing.

>> Read more on Boa-Athu’s column

That in its own right is intriguing enough and provides a stunning backdrop for the perfect analogy to what was, easily, the seasons most riveting, statistical story with a thickening plot.  

As Morricone’s fascinating “Ecstasy of Gold” plays in the background at Sad Hill cemetery, Eastwood intentionally empties Wallach’s revolver of its bullets and fells Van Cleef with his dead-eye accuracy, into a freshly dug grave. Arguably one of the most iconic scenes of Cinema Paradiso. They had intense close ups and radical distance shots.

The season whole ending on the triumphant note of St Joseph’s who finally had something to shout about with a deserving sevens title. The week prior to losing to their derby against traditional rivals– St Peter’s, in the greatest ever Knockout final. A fortnight previous to that, Royal marching in style to clinch the league during the season proper, swatting aside St Peter’s.

After the exciting all saints’ Milo President’s Trophy final, the Josephians later managed to get the sevens silverware defeating Royal College

In a nutshell, the triumvirate of top-three finishers, making sure they all had a share of the pot of gold. Jockeying for that lead role. The perfect analogy that of the three great spaghetti Westerns in The Good, the bad and the ugly. For a few dollars more and a Fistful of dollars.

So what exactly does this tell us? How exactly does the significance of each tournament tell a story and more specifically, the head to head comparison?

The Statistics

League P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
Royal 9 9 0 0 328 78 250 36.44 8.67 50 5.56
St Joseph’s 9 8 1 0 250 161 89 27.78 17.89 37 4.11
St Peter’s 9 7 2 0 252 128 124 28.00 14.22 37 4.11
KO P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
St Peter’s 3 3 0 N/A 84 45 39 28.00 15.00
St Joseph’s 3 2 1 N/A 89 49 40 29.67 16.33
Sevens P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
St Joseph’s 3 3 0 N/A 69 54 15 23.00 18.00 11 3.67
Royal 3 2 1 N/A 71 26 45 23.67 8.67 11 3.67
Head to Head League+KO P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
Royal 1 1 0 18 13 5 18 13.00 2 2.00
St Joseph’s 1 0 1 13 18 -5 13 18.00 1 1.00
Royal 1 1 0 32 13 19 32 13.00 4 4.00
St Peter’s 1 0 1 13 32 -19 13 32.00 1 1.00
St Joseph’s 2 1 1 30 27 3 30 27.00 4 2.00
St Peter’s 2 1 1 27 30 -3 27 30.00 5 2.50

*Please note that top stat for Royals 9 played, exclude the Bradby shield 2nd leg (non league- encounter)

*PPG:points per game for PPGA:points per game against

Season proper/league:

The two key most telling stats are the Points differential and average tries per game. Royal have a staggering 250 points in the good as opposed to Joe’s 89 and Pete’s 124. Both saints combined, fall short by 37 points, which in theory is 5 converted tries and some.

Royal have a staggering 250 points in the good as opposed to Joe’s 89 and Pete’s 124

In the average tries per game component the champions register 5.56 as opposed 4.11 respectively. That is almost 1.5 tries more per game. A clear advantage in both exposed and run on form. Importantly 7.5 points per game more, which is more than 1 converted try.

What this equates to is that given the gulf in points differentials, Royal were great at scoring tries and equally great, at defending their own goal line. Both saints only crossed Royal’s line twice combined over 140 minutes. That’s 1 try per game each. As opposed to them scoring 6 five pointers in two outings.

Read More:

Battle of the saints in aggregates

This year the Saints met twice; in the league and in the Milo Knockout finals

In what was a most enthralling and possibly the most evenly contested derbies in schools’ rugby, understanding the aggregates will tell you how close if not almost, even-stevens it was. The head to head (H2H) is “ooh” inspiring.

Aggregate P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
St Joseph’s 2 1 1 30 27 3 30 27.00 4 2.00
St Peters 2 1 1 27 30 -3 27 30.00 5 2.50

The total points differential is exactly the same with more or less one penalty goal either side in the black versus red, being the sole difference. Obviously, Peters edging Joes by 2 points in a sudden death game to take the KO final. Therefore, the aggregate in theory made no difference. In practice, you couldn’t split the two. Hence why the honours were even.

Furthermore, the 4 tries to 5 stat in doing so, giving the KO winners a half try advantage on average. Again, underscoring how even and close both teams were.

Compare those numbers to the season proper winner, therein lies the difference, where Royal hold sway. It is unfortunate they didn’t contest the KO, had they we would have possibly seen and understood where all three were as far as cumulative exposed and run on form. A true statistical comparison on this three way go.

Also read: Top five coaches and coach of the year 2018

Sevens and the shorter format

There was only one clear winner in the red hot favorite who won as expected. St Joseph’s and their chances were boosted, that much more as St Peter’s pulled out. Royal, for their part who have never really had the shorter format on their radar– truly outdid all expectations to make the final.

In my view Isipathana, were the clear second best backed team with arguably Science College, meeting the champs early in the day to exit at the quarter final stage, a third line of favoritism. Royal were possibly fourth. Possibly.

The reality is that fifteens and sevens are NEVER really correlated on form and are mutually exclusive. Therefore, making any comparison is only ever going to be qualitative as opposed to quantitative. A popular yardstick though, in the island nation.

In contrast to the fifteens format, Isipathana played exceptionally well in the sevens but lost out to league champions in the semifinals

Regardless, Joes and their dominance at the sevens was clear cut. The numbers and also the style in which they progressed in day two was remarkable. Never were they a converted try away from being overtaken on the scorecard at any point. Safe as houses. The best, Royal could have conjured on the last play of the final, had it been a converted try, would have been a 2 point loss.   

Read More: Champions at Jurassic Park

Royal, on the other hand on all occasions and eventually losing in the final, had to come from behind to beat Vidyartha and then Pathana to qualify. Significantly highlighted in the points against column.

Simply put: Joes scored at will and defended their line almost twice as better than Royal, who leaked far too many points. Almost twice as much and some (18 Vs. 8.67 based on day 2). Again, St Peters this time, were missing to piece the complete puzzle.

Sevens P W L D PF PA Diff. Avg PPG Avg.PPGA Tries Avg TPG
Royal 3 3 1 N/A 69 54 15 23.00 18.00 11 3.67
St Joseph’s 3 3      0 N/A 71 26 45 23.67 8.67 11 3.67

Key, “Gunfighter” moments

Royal V St Joseph’s:

The weapon of choice where Royal, pick and go. Setup phase at a time and confidently motor over for points. This was no different and early in the second half, they chose to drive patiently as Himantha Hirushan bustled his way over. Despite plenty of defenders at hand, they were all ineffective and redundant. The “Black Panther” put the icing on a tasty, export quality- (beating) cake.

Hirushan (middle) was a versatile forward playing in the front row as well as number 8

St Joseph’s V St Peter’s:

Gamunu Chethiya and his team saving tackle. If there was ever a man I’d want to have on a team like that on Armageddon, to save the world, in this case, your rugby world, it’s Gamunu Chethiya. His chase the tail tackle on Wimaladasa will forever go down in Josephian folklore as the tackle that shook all the way to Maradana. It was all heart and pure rugby bravado. It’s the genuine article.

Royal V St Peter’s:

Royal’s back of the lineout ploy and set up their fishtail-driving maul, to open the trickle to what was a floodgate. Beautiful, well-rehearsed, set-piece which set the platform for many more to come. After being negated to a line out drive from the front, a masterclass in tactical superiority.

The opposition had no idea in how to defend it.

St Joseph’s V St Peter’s (MILO KO final):

Gamunu Chethiya fields a kick return in the forty-sixth minute and makes another break into Pete’s twenty-two. He is so fast, ends up isolating himself and conceding a penalty (holding on). The Bamba team then kick for touch and get a further two penalties for illegal maul defense. The second where prop Gregory is yellow carded in the forty-ninth minute. An absolute critical blow which turned the game on its head and clearly shifted momentum.

Royal V St Joseph’s (Sevens final):

On the stroke of halftime, Royal break away for a try on the left wing but is called back for a forward pass. Gamunu Chethiya is on hand to plead for it, he is right. It is a touch judge call. Joes, in the ensuing scrum, scoot around the blind side and go under the posts to score seven points. Crucially taking a lead and the momentum in to the second half.

Note: Two of the five key moments involve #Straight Up no.1 game breaker, Gamunu Chethiya.

Clint Eastwood, is….

Right, now that we got numbers and hard evidence of the way, let’s get back to our story. As they say, never let a good story get in the way of the facts. That is very applicable to Sri Lanka.

The most intriguing part of this all, is who plays what by definition and what role they play in the movies. Three distinct classics set in the wild west.

For their part, Royal did it in style and beat everybody during the season proper. Dispatching Petes with ease, for it was they who controlled and made their own destiny– rolling into the last week of the season proper. A clear Clint Eastwood in this three way go. They were the Good. The other couple, of course, a subjective selection, depending on who and what you view is most praiseworthy. Who plays the bad and then the ugly? I will leave that up to your imagination. There will always be a selective bias, no matter what, unless in exceptional circumstance where one can see past colored blinkers.

Then, in an underdog who completely overturned the high tide like story, St. Peter’s came back to stun brother Joe. Just like how Eastwood who plays the role of the bounty hunter, riding away with all the cash in his wagon, into the sunlight to that famous whistling tune of For a few dollars more.

This only made Joes hungrier and took to best Royal in the shorter format. No surprises there. As Eastwood, the lead character, again, showed all his fast draw tricks– in A fistful of dollars, where he exacts revenge on four standover men for ridiculing his mule. Would that be the final four on day two?. Again, use your imagination.

…and the Oscar goes to…..

Based on the stats, there is no doubt that the unbeaten league triumph is top of the list. Purely on performance and it’s merits of being unbeaten– backed up by the numbers. A nearly improbable achievement, given the overall competition. Moreover, with all three playing their part as gunslingers and their illustrious records. Furthermore, they were all in with a shout right up till that fateful Saturday at Jurassic Park. So be it and most would agree.  

The common thread in all of this is that two key players were missing in the last two episodes. Its lead character is Eastwood. Depending on who you support and where your affiliations lie, Van Cleef and Gene Maria Volante will be seen as who you root for. That is entirely up to you and do so at your wish.

The very reason, why this three way shootout makes for more excitement and unfinished business. That being, which movie is indeed the best of the three. I have made my selection for the season proper based on hard fact, some fantasy and poetic fiction.

Perhaps, it is best if the powers that be get the timing right, just as Leone did with his three great hits. A fistful of dollars released first, then, For a few dollars more followed by the epic in The good, the bad and the ugly. If we were to then take the same across with the sevens, Knockout and then the league played in order. We would have no excuses, no pullouts and truly find out in the modern context of professionalized, pro-am schools rugby, who– the fastest gun is.

So, as far as the oscar goes, it’s hard to look past this three way gunfight. For now, that is. Although this trilogy ended for 2018, it is only getting started in my view. It is far from over. So watch this space for season 2019. It’s probably fair but unfair to end on this note, but I will.

To be continued.