It’s the 3rd day of the 1st Test match between Sri Lanka and West Indies in Trinidad. Sri Lanka, in reply to West Indies’ 414, is struggling at 140 for 5. At the wicket are wicket-keeper Niroshan Dickwella and all-rounder Dilruwan Perera. It’s Devendra Bishoo to bowl the 43rd over of the Sri Lankan inning. First ball, Dickwella is run out. Sri Lanka now need 74 runs to avoid a follow-on. The responsibility is on Dilruwan to guide the tail.
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A few months ago he too was a member of the tail, but now he has to help it wag and wag for long enough. History is totally against it. Since the dawn of 2016, Lankan tail-enders’ average is 13.86, just above Australian and Bangladeshi tail-enders. So what history suggests is that Sri Lanka is to follow-on for the 6th time since 2016. Remember though, cricket is a game of ‘great uncertainties’.
Looking deeper into Sri Lanka’s Test record in the past 30 months, something which stands out is the number of innings they’ve followed on. To be exact it’s 5. The total number of innings where teams had to follow-on during this period is 10. Sri Lanka greedily having a bigger share. Out of the 25 Tests Sri Lanka have played since 2016, they won and lost 10 matches apiece. The lost 10 matches also include the 5 matches in which they had to follow-on.
It all started back in 2016, when Sri Lanka started a Test series at Leeds. Sri Lanka, with fresh memories of their heroics at the same venue in 2014, where they pulled off a stunning victory at Leeds backed up by Angelo Mathews’ splendid knock of 160* and Dhammika Prasad’s match winning 5-wicket haul which won them their first ever test series (series of more than 1 test, Sri Lanka had won a one-off test in 1998) in England. 2016 sadly didn’t give any sweet memories for Sri Lanka to take back as they lost the 3-match series 2-0. In both the lost games Sri Lanka had to follow-on.
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After a miserable series against England in May, Sri Lanka was asked to follow-on by South Africa in their first game of 2017. Sri Lanka was white-washed in this series which was played in South Africa. In the same year Sri Lanka had to face another white-wash. This time at home at the hands of a strong Indian team. This white-wash extended even to the limited overs edition. Sri Lanka followed-on in the 2nd and 3rd tests of this disastrous series.
During this period Sri Lanka have batted second on 14 occasions and averages 246 while the average 1st inning score when batting first is 360 in 11 innings. Although they have batted second more times, only 47% of their total first innings scores have come batting second. 53% of their 1st innings scores have come when batting first.
Out of the 14 matches they’ve batted second, they’ve managed to win only 1 match and have lost 8. The only match they won batting second was the one-off test against Zimbabwe which was played at the R. Premadasa Stadium.
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Interestingly Sri Lanka have won 9 out of 11 tests they’ve batted first during this 30-month period. The match in which Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka for the first time in tests is one match when Sri Lanka batted first and lost. The 2nd Test of the Indian tour which was played at Nagpur is the other match Sri Lanka lost. It also was Sri Lanka’s biggest defeat in Tests.
