Super Saturday came and went, signaling the end to the first round of the SSRL- Singer Schools Rugby League, season proper for 2019. We were spoilt for choice and the rugby was riveting. It was pure theatre.
Here are six key footnotes and stats which caught my attention.
Carting horses and a burst bubble
End of a 2 year unbeaten streak for Royal
The defending champions Royal ended their game against Kingswood the week before– by going 31 phases in 90 seconds, As they backed up against their highest rated opposition for the first round– St Peter’s, all wasn’t well.
It was a bungling and inaccurate performance for large parts of the game. It was very un-Royal like and possibly their worst performance in over 3 seasons. The numbers backed it up.
Then it happened. It had to. When all else fails, go to your bread and butter, the meat and potatoes. You guessed it– the pick and go off the ruck. One out one back.
In the 58th minute, after a number of inaccuracies, Royal start their rumble off a line out. They then go almost 130 seconds of ruck recycling for about 91 carry meters. However, their net gain is only 23 meters. So for every 1 meter, they went forward, Royal postured a staggering 3.9 meters of sideways or lateral carrying. An incredible stat and sequence of numbers. It’s gut-busting and requires extreme discipline.
They did eventually score a try as St Peter’s had no clue to turn the ball over. Credit to the Petes as they didn’t infringe for 41 phases.
Then again in the 66th minute, they use the same A9 highway to claw back. In this instance, it was 28 phases over almost 60 seconds. A total of 69 phases over 190 seconds. It yielded about 44 front on meters which was a result of a whopping 130 (carrying meters) in zigzag. Only to concede a penalty for holding on.
That was the nail in the coffin and Royal’s bubble had well and truly burst. St Peter’s went on to win against Royal after 6 years. That’s 2189 days and what a day to do it. Christening their own Loftus Versfeld like, “Castle by the Canal” with a sweet-sweet win.
All very exhausting numbers. Just trying to digest them makes you breathe heavy. Imagine, actually doing it on the field. The key stat which mattered was the 12-8. St Peter’s had beaten Royal. They earned it. Carting horses and tiresome work but eventually, Royal faltered. Ending a 20-game winning streak.
In theory, and now in practice– it is a regressive form line. A consistent dip enough to have some alarm bells ringing. The savior, of course, a break and a spell till the next round begins.
To draw or not to draw
The other crackerjack matchup was at Havelock Park. Looking at it a second time on #stats_pert, it was the game of the weekend. It was crystal clear. Pathana and Joes traded blow for blow. My pre-game prediction suggested a 24-24 draw or dead heat. Allowing for a + or – 1 try, either way, 5 points as a margin of error.
Well, what do you know? It ended an agonizingly close 18-17 win to Joes by a nostril whisker in a photo finish. The Green Machine raced to a 17-6 lead at half time. There was an expectation of a blowout but my video watch analysis knew there was a twist to the tale. Bridging a gap of 11 points to the better of 1, Joes hung in for dear life. Running out worthy winners.
The anomaly of this game was Pathana game breaker and star of the show, Manilka Ruberu, and his goal kicking. If there was going to be that one game it didn’t happen, this was it. Missing 4 shots at goal. When a long-range attempt from 50m out hits the crossbar, maybe it’s not your day. Maybe there is something more than just stats and science getting in the way?
Time to consult an astrologer?
Given that he single-handedly tied Trinity up last year with 4 clean shots at goal, this was an off day. No one saw that coming. That said, these are budding schoolboys in an amateur sport. They are learning the art of playing high-pressure footy. So as fans and an analyst of this league, you CANNOT pin anything on a single player. That is a line you should not cross.
So, let me take this opportunity to make that crystal clear and if you’re a true fan of the game, rally around these young men who attempt to relive the “past” of most alumni who are the first to jump and criticize these school boys. Especially with the social media fall out postgame.
He will be back, freshened up and ready. Let’s look forward to it.
So back to the game. The most striking stat was that both sides had over 85% success in tackles made. An impressive number for this level and indicative of the final result and margin. It was evidence of the physicality and commitment they brought forth. Had the missed tackle count started to mount, with players and attacking patterns they possess, the points spread would have crossed 50+ for the game. Even higher.
Five weeks in, this game is a key formline. Based on what I saw, I still can’t split the two. Given that Joes won, they will certainly feel like the stallion on the stud farm. They got the spoils like the horse who got the chestnut filly. Their supporters mobbed the field in total euphoria, for they knew that they had overcome the first episode from their war of the worlds.
Royal and then St Peter’s are the next two. We can’t wait!
Acing the Science test
Whilst the odds on pop in Royal tasted defeat, the improving long shot at odds in Trinity for the Bradby was on cloud no.9. This, after hammering Science. They planted 8 tries in a commanding performance at home– against a tricky Science College. One of the league’s most mercurial backmarkers.
It is never an easy assignment facing a team who can pull a rabbit out of a hat from almost any part of the field. Science did exactly that as they flew through the gates. Dotting down first but then, that awoke a sleeping, growing, giant, seemingly still at its adolescent stage. Striking back with 24 unanswered points. 19 points spread over 20 minutes.
The highlight for TCK was the form shown by Harsha Samarasinghe. His hat trick added to another bunch of fast men who now make Trinity a very real threat. A chance in running for the Bradby. It is a progressive and bubbling pool of players. In my eyes, they now have 4 key strike weapons in their back division. Samarasinghe, G and A Kulathunga with skipper R Bandaranayake. The question, of course, can their forwards step it up?
This type of win is exactly the sort of result you want going into a spell and ending your prep for the first round. Contrast this to how Royal will be feeling. It’s certainly not the be all and end all. What it is though, Trinity is on the upswing albeit via lack of consistency. They are certainly catching up with the Bradby favorite. In more ways than one.
Read more : Five footnotes from week four
As far as this game went, they certainly got an A against Science. Not many have and not many will. Royal will get their shot on the 20th of April. To calm their nerves, only an A+ under the current circumstances will do. They will need some serious tuition.
Ratings and handicapping
Read More : Bradby box set EP 2
The weekend’s top tier saw what I would call an almost perfect spread ( with points differentials) and ratings based competitiveness. If we look at who played who, the total points per game and what the differential was– as we progressed through the rankings, it is all too evident. Top to bottom.
The tighter the placings, the closer the gap got and the lower the ratings, the wider it got. A perfect handicapper’s dream. The below numbers will tell you the story.
| Rating / match | Home | Away | Total points | +/- Diff. |
| KCK V MCK | 62 | 14 | 76 | 48 |
| ZC V SACK | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 |
| TCK V SCI | 50 | 20 | 70 | 30 |
| STC V WC | 24 | 26 | 50 | 2 |
| IC V SJC | 17 | 18 | 35 | 1 |
| SPC V RC | 12 | 08 | 20 | 4 |
The lowest rated game produced the highest points spread and differential, which was Kingswood V Maliyadeva, both of whom will now play in the Plate competition. Zahira and SACK produced a lot closer game which slightly skewed them towards a top-rated finish.
There was a total of 299 points scored in 6 games or 420 minutes of rugby. An ave. of 49.83 points per game, skewed largely by the blowouts from 2 of the 3 bottom rating games.
The top 2 rated games between the top 4 sides produced an ave. of 27.5 points. A difference of 22.33 points to the overall average of the weekend. This was largely due to tighter defensive work and fewer missed tackles. I won’t go into a very detailed analysis of the missed tackles to total tackles made data but it all makes perfect sense (and who won what and how).
The highest rating games of Pathana V Joes and Peter’s V Royal gave the tightest finishes and lowest points spread. They were consistent with the placings and a near perfect match to my stats_pert form analysis and pre-game predictor.
When the two highest rating sides met, which was the Pathana and Joes, who in my view and statistically are the better of the top 4, we had 1 point splitting the two. St Peter’s and Royal are a close third and fourth, who on their form are starting to lag behind the top weights from the 1B group. The best indicator from the weekend were their respective handling errors and line busts. Joes were a clear top pick. Royal, a surprising fourth (or first worst on stats).
A classic case of elimination of the least rated. If and when the form and ratings stay true, as the second round progresses, St Joseph’s, in theory, will come out on top. It is a distant call for my win predictor but it looks a safe bet based on key performance indicators.
Defense, in my view, as the games get tighter will decide the title for this season proper. This weekend gone was evidence enough.
Unlucky thirteen?
Modern day schools rugby in SL spares no change and have no loose ends when it comes to coaching and support staff. Perhaps there is some pseudo science to it as well. For better or worse.
What I am about to state is a mere observation and nothing more but a very striking one. This is, after all, amateur schoolboy rugby where young kids play for the glory.
As seen on broadcast, Royal College (my old school) had 13 men dressed in team gear as part of their coaching and wider support staff. A rather large number given that this is a 15+10 = 23-man sport. Led by last year’s #straightup P4P coach of the year, Dushan Lewke.
I guess the point I am trying to make (based on mere observation) is that for an amateur sport in a third world country like Sri Lanka, this is one giant step and highlights the level of resourcing, some schools are prepared to throw at in the quest for success. It is admirable, caring, possibly over the top and costs an arm and a leg. All that being relative to who and what.
In any case, 13 was that number and as most would argue, it is an unlucky one. That certainly proved to be the case on Saturday. Maybe it will all change and come down to 7 starting next round.
“Castle by the Canal” and record-breaking numbers
St Peter’s unveiled what was an envious and magnificent, new facility with stands and VIP glass enclosures like a castle. It was reminiscent of what Loftus Verslfeld in Pretoria- South Africa, the home grounds of Northern Transvaal or the Blue Bulls. For that very reason I would like to dub it “Castle by the Canal” and coin that phrase as a #straightup 2019 edition.
It looked that impressive for a school boy facility.
A stated seating capacity of 5000, it was almost packed to its very high concrete and steel rafters. It would have raked in an impressive gate and rightly so. The entertainment was fully worth it. Throw in to the mix 5 other fixtures and conservatively, we would have had 20,000+ fee paying punters through the turnstiles.
Not to be outdone, ThePapare.com had an impressive online viewership of a combined 1000+ users at any one single moment, across 3 LIVE platforms.
I need not say anymore. Actually, there is. Thank you– to all those who make the effort of watching both on and off line. It is what makes this game and league what it is. Sensational.
Play of the day:
Manilka Ruberu’s long range shot at goal which hit the crossbar. It was pure drama straight out of the Titanic about to sink. The crowd reaction was priceless. Agony and ecstasy for two sets of supporters. You couldn’t script it or write it in the stars. Play, which eventually, based on lady luck didn’t go the Green machines way.
Hero of the week:
St Joseph’s and their forward pack. In the face of what was an unceasing wave after wave of attack from Pathana, they held on and resisted. It was a heroic effort which won them the game. #straightup it was a stunning effort.
The verdict:
A super Saturday of six rugby games which kept my rugby lab running on overload. I apologize if there was a lack of coverage for some games. It is not due to any bias or disinterest, merely that we are all human and require some form of sleep.
Perhaps, it may be a wiser way home if the powers that be spread the games across the weekend so there is no overload and all games attract even bigger crowds and attention. Saturday is the bumper day for gate takings and we understand. That said, spreading and hedging everyone’s bets by working together will yield far greater results and coffers a plenty.
#straightup #stats_pert
