Bradby box set – EP4

We now have one complete round and five full games to draw up two detailed form lines. Royal and Trinity ended their campaigns for their first prep on contrasting notes and styles. The odds-on pop in Royal wobbled and underwhelmed to crash to their first defeat in two calendar seasons. It would have tasted bitter.

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Trinity found a wing in each of their feet to rocket home with some style. Their win against Science was reminiscent of a starved waiter at a yum char bar. It was tasty and they filled their boots. This, after dropping two games earlier in the play, full of inconsistencies and unforced errors.

Are we seeing a shift in “momentum” and dawn of a real chance at a Bradby upset? Let’s take a closer look.

As we head into a spell of two and a half weeks, it couldn’t have come at a better time for Royal and the worst possible for Trinity. The Colombo 7 lads will look to freshen up and lick their own wounds after turning a winnable game into an absolute mess with terrible tactics.

Trinity, on the other hand, has found a purple patch with some eye-catching playing patterns which involve playing the entire width of Pallekelle. Using all fifteen men. That is where the twain shall meet for the first leg. Seemingly, on stats_pert and my number crunching, TCK, are clearly the progressive of the two and are forging ahead. Royal, have regressed considerably from where they were as defending and unbeaten champions.

Time to get the magnifier out.

Round five: Week 4 March 2019
Trinity beat Science College 50-20 (5G,3T V 2G,1T,1P) @ HOME

Keynotes and stats

• TCK concede a 0-5 lead within the first 5 minutes
• TCK respond with 24 unanswered points in a 20-minute period
• TCK goal kicking accuracy: 5 of 8 improving to 62.5% accuracy
• TCK concede 3 tries and a double-digit score yet again, a week on week
• Starting Centre Harsha Samarasinghe scores a hat trick to push for the 13 jersey
• VIDEO watch analysis: Front row involvement with 16 passes and 4 try assists  

Some of, if not all of TCK’s playing patterns involved playing “pods” of 3 and 3 in midfield as they pushed to use the full width of Pallekelle stadium. It was a real treat to watch as their starting first five Subasinghe kept feeding them front foot-ball. A well trained and orchestrated chain of plays.

There is a huge difference between FFB(Front foot-ball) and f-FB (flat foot-ball). Giving them a crack at positive running meters by breaching the gain line at will. Further to it, by always looking to recycle and move it wide, they are giving their outside backs a real look good look at a clear field and space. The 8 tries are proof enough. As I always state, numbers don’t lie.

TCK converted 20 line busts by scoring on 8 of them. That is a healthy 40% strike rate. Moreover, my video watch notes saw Nimesh Ekanayake, Witharana, and Maadi Abdullah handle the ball 16 times, with 4 try assists as a result. A staggering 50% stat of try assists for the front row factory. Mobility. Again, well-rehearsed coaching at its progressive best.

Tactical subs: A complete reversal from last week as a leaner looking Lennox Calyanarathne made his 1st appearance. The injury to Robinson gave hat-trick hero Samarasinghe a real good look in and he was flawless with his running lines. Fair to say, TCK now has a very settled and versatile squad. Four (4) gun backs who are all potent runners and game breakers.

Expert tips: My inside mail suggests that the second round will see a further extension of their pool of players. There will be a focus on physicality. Expect to see some of their “larger” forwards from the wider training pool make an entry.

Royal lost to St Peter’s 8-12 (1T,1P V 1G,1T) @ Away

Keynotes and stats

• RC give up 60% + possession to their opponent two weeks running  
• RC concede more tries than they score for the first time in 3 seasons
• RC end their winning streak of 17 games and face their first loss to SPC in 6 seasons  
• RC total phases: 130 in 70 minutes. 69 of them are off 3 minutes ball LIVE in play
• RC concede a yellow card in a driving maul in their key strike zone of 22-40 m
• Kalindu Nandila makes the ONLY line break from the back division for Royal
• VIDEO Watch analysis: Royals “overall” kicking– poor formline continues  

Traffic jams: plenty and on reverse gear. Coupled with an unbelievably disciplined effort not even seen at test match level for ruck recycling. That was out of this world.

Royal, continued to make very heavy weather on a fast and dry surface at Bambalapitiya. Going into a default mode of picking and going from the ruck to one out one back, hit-ups. All bar one try made it look far too predictable.

There seem to be question marks around their strategy and tactical option taking. As I alerted to their formline of tactical kicking as an offensive weapon, it is very absent and hence the stats of 2 plays with 69 phases outweighing 61 others, disproportionally skewed over 3 and 67 minutes respectively.

Overall, this game was very regressive. It included their set pieces and clean breaks, which was 1 for the whole game. The one shining moment was their sheer belief in their ruck recycle game but as this result proved, it is a bridge too heavy to build a winning formula on.

As they look to a critical spell, much work will be needed around their kicking game and also, back division and what their roles are within the game plan/s. As a team, they have it all to do. However, if history is anything to by, they will come back and make a huge statement or three prior to the Bradby.

Interestingly and thankfully, the mid-season break arrived just in time. Had the league played on and based on ratings and team seedings, it would have been Royal meeting Trinity next week for the Bradby. Thankfully, due to prior arrangements for the diamond jubilee, it won’t be so. Rewind 365 shows that one year ago, it was indeed the Bradby first leg which Royal romped home. Had it been the case this year, based on the current form line, Royal would have most likely suffered their first Bradby defeat (single leg) 2 years. Keywords- most likely.

Another alarming drift was how Royal got “blitzed” with SPC and their rush defense. They got taken and beaten at their own game and Trinity would have seen this and want to emulate it. Although, it is unlikely that Royal will allow itself to be bullied and outmuscled (in physicality) twice in one season.

Tactical subs: Closer attention needs to be paid to their senior players with what and how they contribute to gaining positive meters and not go sideways. Given that the backs were almost non-existent, coach Lewke will want to dig deeper into his wider training pool and rotate his tight five. Impact players need to come in at crucial times. We did not see any such impact or players V St Peter’s.

Expert tips: As Royal didn’t quite “flex their muscles”, the roles of their key, senior players such as Thulaib Hassen will come under scrutiny. This may require some positional changes and also, different players looking to kick from different areas. A real inspection of what they expect from their game management. In theory, this should force tactical changes and “thinking” outside the box. A bit cryptic– I know– let’s leave it like that for now. I don’t want to ruin the surprise for you.

Head to head prep and run on form

The second round beckons to be a Bradby defining preparation and lead in. How both sides will handle theirs in terms of physicality, accuracy and above all statistical dominance will decide who and how the Bradby is won in 2019. Not forgetting that overall sentiment in terms of how either team is currently preparing their battle plans and rugby confidence. It is very much coaching and test of rugby IQ and its depth.  

Singer League School Rugby 2019 – Round 02 / Week – 06 Cup

Matches to be played between 20th to 21st April
Royal College BYE  — St Peters College vs Trinity College (AWAY)

Round – 02 / Week-07
Matches to be played between 26th to 28th April
Royal College Vs Science College (HOME)– Trinity College vs Wesley College (HOME)

Round – 02 / Week – 08
Matches to be played between 03rd to 05th May
Royal College vs St Joseph’s (HOME) — St Thomas College vs Trinity College (AWAY)

Round – 02 / Week – 09
Matches to be played between 10th to 12th May
Royal College vs Trinity College — BRADBY SHIELD 1st leg @ Pallekelle

Based on the above lead up and rated matchups, Trinity will have a softer end to their prep prior to the 1st leg. This is based purely on the opposition rating and current placings on the points table. (Present and true formline)

As for Royal, they have the “harder” run on, based on their opposition. The game prior to May 11th will be against St Joseph’s and it could very well end up being a championship winning or losing 70 minutes. How much toll both physiologically and psychologically will that take?

Also, with a late change, the Royal V Isipathana game has been moved to mid-Bradby. This also means Trinity will have a break in between the two legs.

In terms of immediate impact, both sides will play their previous opponent from week 5– next up in Science and St Peter’s. Further evidence to how well they would utilize the 2-week spell and revamp to re-strategize.

I can’t conclusively say how the “harder” or “softer” prep will ultimately affect the Bradby result but what I can say, is that based on current ratings and how the respective opponents play, unless there is a significant deviation of how they (opponents) perform, Royal has the tougher of the two lead-ups. That said, it could work in their favor. Historically, Royal has bolted home with a wet sail as the games got harder and more demanding. Only time will tell.

Given that I have now, laid it all out, there is no excuse for either school to expect a soft landing or a trampoline for when teams don’t get the right result. So, with the two biggest budgets and deep playing pools, there is no excuse whatsoever for both. None.

Points table head to head after week 5: 5 from 5

Stats by stats_pert , X: Denotes a break of freshening up for round 2

Rewind 365
BRADBY Shield first leg: Royal beat Trinity 39-7 @ HOME

#straightup #stats_pert
Boa Athu can be reached on [email protected] and is part of the Bradby shield commentary team. You can catch him weekly on his TV show at ThePapareRugby FB page.