After back-to-back washouts, there’s just one way Australia can guarantee their own future – beat England
Rain again played havoc with Australia’s chances of making the Champions Trophy semi-finals on Monday night as their match against Bangladesh was washed out, denying Steve Smith’s men a result for a second time this tournament.
It leaves Australia in a precarious position with two points from back-to-back No Results and with one match left to play – against in-form hosts England at Edgbaston on Saturday.
However, the condensed nature of the competition means all four Group A teams can still qualify for the semi-finals.
Despite the frustrating weather, the equation for Australia is very, very simple: beat England and make the semi-finals.
If they lose, it’s more than likely tournament over. However, should other results (and the forecast rain) fall in Australia’s favour, there is still a very slight chance they could lose to England – or have yet another wash out – and still progress.
Three matches remain in Group A, with both England v New Zealand (Cardiff, Tuesday) and New Zealand v Bangladesh (Cardiff, Friday) to be played ahead of Australia’s final pool match, meaning Steve Smith’s men will know exactly where they stand when they take the field in Birmingham.
England, with one win already on the board after Thursday night’s thumping of Bangladesh, are best placed to advance and will have a chance to cement their spot tonight when they play New Zealand in Cardiff.
If they lose that encounter, a win over the Aussies on Saturday will still be enough for Eoin Morgan’s men to advance.
If New Zealand win either of their two remaining matches, there’s no way Australia can progress without beating England – so, fingers crossed for clear skies over Edgbaston on Saturday.
For the record, the ICC Champions Trophy playing conditions for tie-breakers to determine who advances to the semi-finals are as follows:
The first tie-breaker is the team with the most wins in the Group matches advances.
The second tie-breaker is net run rate.
The third tie-breaker is the result of the head-to-head match.
The final tiebreaker allows for the higher seeded team to progress. When seedings for this tournament were set Australia was the No.1 ODI team in the world.
Remaining fixtures
6 JuneEngland v New Zealand, Cardiff (D)
9 June New Zealand v Bangladesh, Cardiff (D)
10 June England v Australia, Edgbaston (D
Weather
‘Gusty showers’ are being forecast for tonight’s game in Cardiff, meaning further frustration could be on the way and at the moment, it looks like being a similar story on Friday. The Met Service is tipping a wet and windy day in Birmingham on Saturday.
Scenario one: England beat New Zealand, then New Zealand beat Bangladesh
Outcome: This puts England (4 points) on top of the table, ahead of New Zealand (3), Australia (2) and Bangladesh (1)
For Australia to advance: A loss, a tie or a wash out on Saturday will not do. Australia must beat England.
Scenario two: England beat New Zealand, then Bangladesh beat New Zealand
Outcome: England (4 points) top the table, ahead of Bangladesh (3), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario three: England beat New Zealand, then Bangladesh/New Zealand is either washed out or a tie
Outcome: England (4 points) top the table, ahead of Australia (2), New Zealand (2) and Bangladesh (2)
For Australia to advance: A win over England, another wash out, or a tie will put Australia clear on the points table. Should they lose to England, they could still advance on net run rate.
Scenario four: New Zealand beat England and Bangladesh
Outcome: New Zealand (5 points) top the table, ahead of England (2), Australia (2) and Bangladesh (1)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario five: New Zealand beat England, but lose to Bangladesh
Outcome: New Zealand and Bangladesh sit on three points, ahead of England (2) and Australia (2)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario six: New Zealand beat England, then Bangladesh/New Zealand is either washed out or a tie
Outcome: New Zealand (4 points) top the table, ahead of England (2), Australia (2) and Bangladesh (2)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario seven: England/New Zealand is washed out or a tie, then New Zealand beat Bangladesh
Outcome: This puts New Zealand (4 points) on top of the table, ahead of England (3), Australia (2) and Bangladesh (1)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario eight: England/New Zealand is washed out or a tie, then Bangladesh beat New Zealand
Outcome: England and Bangladesh sit on three points, ahead of Australia (2) and Bangladesh (2)
For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.
Scenario nine: Both Cardiff matches are washed out (it’s the UK, it could happen)
Outcome: England and New Zealand sit on three points, ahead of Australia (2) and Bangladesh (2)
For Australia to advance: Beat England. But if they tie with England or there’s no result, they progress as the higher seeded team.
So as you can see, an Australian victory over England is the preferred, and easiest, option.
