Nee-how! Greetings from Taipei.
After a month’s pool action, this years RWC has already gone down as arguably the best edition to date. We’ve already seen many a twist, which don’t come better than perennial ‘also-rans’ Japan stunning the Springboks during the opening weekend. The Brave Blossoms went on to win three of their four games, becoming the first team ever not to make the quarterfinals, registering as many wins during the pool stage. Seemingly unfair you would think. That said, you couldn’t fault the Scottish who advanced at their expense. Greig Laidlaw and his team managed their pool games the best, picking up the all-important bonus points, which it all came down to in the end. In hindsight, it makes for a more intriguing 4th quarterfinal line up. One would think that Japan have already used up their ‘magic card’ against South Africa, and no team will ever take them lightly again. Vern Cotter has turned this Scottish outfit into a physical bullish team that would give the Wallabies a better run for their money.
We are now down to the final eight teams, and the host nation is not amongst them. Another RWC first. Whilst the British press and pundits alike continue with the post mortem, the remaining contenders have focused on sharpening the axe as we go into the business end of the tournament. This is the phase of the competition, which becomes very edgy, and the team holding their nerve the best likely to go all the way. So, if you’re expecting a try-fest, you’re setting up yourself for disappointment. If you watched the Wales-Australia game, that’s pretty much what’s in store for the remaining three weeks.
Let’s take a look at how the teams line up, and what could be expected based on the evidence seen thus far. Do expect the off surprise though.
South Africa vs Wales
Given the horrendous run of injuries in the Welsh camp, few would have thought they would have been able to make it past the ‘pool of death’. However, credit to Warren Gatland’s men for gutsying it out. The win against England was special, and to come back with a four day turn-around after that monumental effort and beat Fiji also showed a lot of mettle.
Unfortunately, they have suffered more injury setbacks since. They are now down to their third or fourth choice outside centre and are compelled to play Gareth Anscombe out of position at full back. What is also worrying is that they couldn’t find the try line when it mattered with the Wallabies having only thirteen on the field. They have reverted back to the Lydiate-Warburton-Faletau back row, which shows theta they are gearing up expecting a battering up front. No prizes for guessing.
As for the Springboks, they are a side on the ascendency. Funnily enough, it seems all the misfortune they’ve suffered has served to spur them on to be a better team – a side playing like true contenders. I also believe, and I know I might rile a few fans by saying this, but I believe even their backline looks more threatening with the De Allenge-Kriel combination in centerfield. One would expect it would be more of the same from the Boks against Wales, where they will look to their big ball carriers to make ground and to force Wales into infringing.
The critical factor where the game would be won or lost would come to the physicality. I think the Boks just might have too much for Wales to contend with. I’m predicting a South Africa win by 6 or more.
New Zealand vs France
The dream quarterfinal of any ardent rugby follower the world over. One the All Blacks would’ve secretly been dreading though. Who could blame them after 1999, and 2007? The purist would also argue that France were the better side in that 2011 final. However, most would concur with how Eddie Jones (present Japan Coach) summed it up at the time – “The wrong team won the final, but the best team won the competition”. Who could possibly begrudge Richie McCaw a slice of luck, and to be third time unlucky would’ve just been downright unfair.
Though France have not really set the RWC alight with their performances, a critical factor that encapsulates the occasion is that they do not fear the All Blacks. They will have every belief that that have a game in them somewhere to turn the tables on rugby’s glory boys. Same opponents, same place, eighty minutes away from the same result. Thierry Dusaitoir will have a huge part to play in this drama. Even though they have lost the flair French teams have been fondly associated with, they tick some important boxes. Especially when it comes to knock-out footie. They have a big steady set of forwards that can hold their own, creativity in Fofana, and a long range boot from South African-born Scott Spedding.
In terms of the All Blacks, what could one say. Steve Hansen was always going to revert to his tried and tested paring of Non-Conrad Smith. With Milner-Skudder showing immense potential, especially in broken play with some silky handling, and Dan Carter more like the player he was, they look to be peaking at just the right time. The only real concern is in the front row. They’ve shown some vulnerability, especially in that last game against Tonga. You would think that some tinkering has been done, and I believe the introduction of Crockett to the staring ranks is a good move.
Will Les Bleus do the unthinkable again? They say that lightening does not strike twice in the same place. In the context of this game, I would have to agree. The All Blacks by 5 or more.
Ireland vs Argentina
The Irish were very impressive in that game against the French. However, it did come at a considerable cost, losing their mercurial leader Paul O’Connell. Jonathan Sexton is another injury doubt, with Sean O’Brien also likely to miss out through suspension. However, unlike Irish teams of the past, this squad looks to have a lot more depth within their ranks. Joe Schmidt, a Kiwi has transformed this side, and playing with confidence they seem to have the game to trouble anyone. Keith Earls has had a good tournament and will look to continue his good form. They will look to put the ball deep into Argentine territory and play the game there. This is what works for them. Where they are a bit weak is the scrummaging, which is likely to be their Achilles heel this weekend. The Pumas will look to capitalize on this.
As for the Los Pumas, for me, they and their fans have been one of the teams of the tournament. They played exceptionally against New Zealand, and have maintained a stead tempo in all their group games. They have a very good balance in terms of experience and youth. Gone are the days where they would just attack you in the scrum and kick penalties. With the likes of Nicolas Sanchez, Hernadez, and Carderro they are equally threatening out wide. I expect this to be the most entraining of the quarters, and with the Irish and Argentine fans in their numbers, it will be a real carnival atmosphere. However, as the dust settles, only one team will be singing, I expect them to be clad in blue and white hoops.
Australia vs Scotland
The Wallabies have been the best team in the tournament. Hands down. Under Michael Cheika, this team looks the real deal. They are clicking in all facets of their game. The scrum, line-out, tactical kicking, and even their midfield ploys. In a knock-out game, you are as good as your defense, and in that respect, the Wallabies are outstanding. The Welsh boys will tell you. The Pocock-Hooper partnership in the back-row has paid rich dividends. I’m at a loss to think as to why international teams have not worked this out as yet. Probably because they’re that good.
This is like no other Australia side we have seen They will hurt you from anywhere. Bernard Foley has grown into a true class fly half. This complememnts the solidity that Matt Gitueau brings with the attacking threat of Kuridrani, and the extremely dangerous Israel Folau. The later has been troubled a bit with injury, but no one needs pepping up for a game of this magnitude.
As for Vern Cotter’s men, it would take nothing short of a brave heart effort to come close to upstaging their opponents. However they will draw some confidence from the fact that they have beaten them in the recent past. One thing’s for sure – they will not just roll over and die. I expect this to be a tight affair for the first fifty minutes, but I believe the quality and attacking ammunition that Australia possess will show through in the end.
So, sit back and go nowhere. This is what we’ve all been waiting for,
