The four year wait is almost over. Rugby fans the world over will be either Britain bound or glued to their television sets come 19th September, when host nation England kick off the tournament against Pacific Nations Cup winners Fiji.
This, the eight edition of the World Cup, in my estimation will be the most competitive to date. The gap between the front runners of the two hemispheres has shrunk significantly since Richie McCaw hoisted the William Webb Ellis trophy at Eden Park following an epic final against the French.
This week, we take a look at how the leading southern hemisphere nations have shaped up going into the tournament. The recently concluded Rugby Championship provided the stage for some fine tuning of sorts and most teams look set to pick teams tried and tested. However, the final thirty-one who are named to travel is bound to raise an eyebrow or two. Particularly if you’re an Australian fan.
Australia
The newly crowned Rugby Championship winners, looked to have all the momentum with them going into the Bledisloe Cup decider in Auckland. However, Head Coach Michael Chieka opted to make as many as six changes to the side that pulled off the wonderful win in Sydney the previous week. He would argue that he did so to try out new combinations, but then you would think that the game against the USA Eagle in Chicago en route to the World Cup would be a better occasion for that. As it turned out, the plan back fired on him badly. Quade Cooper had another shocker, much to the delight of the home supporters. Funnily enough Cooper was the only bloke that thought that he played well. The combination of playing both open side specialists Michael Hooper and David Pocock worked like a dream in Sydney as the Blacks were well beaten at the breakdown. That starved them of an attacking platform and proved their undoing. Why change that?
The Wallabies 31-man squad was one of the first to be named. There were two real surprises. Brumbies scrum half Nic White looked to be the in red hot form, scoring the winning try that put the game out of New Zealand’s reach in the first game. He also has arguably the best kicking game amongst all the ‘nines’ in Australia. Yet, he was omitted in favour of Nick Phipps and the experienced Will Genia. The latter has had very little game time in the recent past with his comeback this season thwarted yet again by injury. I feel for White, who cam consider himself desperately unlucky not to be on the plane. Hope Chieka doesn’t live to regret this. The other big call made was to omit ex-skipper James Horwill, who led the Wallabies at the last World Cup in New Zealand. I have never been a fan of Horwill, but to be fair by him, he seemed to playing his best rugby this last month. The management have opted to go with the returning Kane Douglas and Dean Mumm, who join Rob Simmons, and battering ram Will Skelton.
For the positives, their set pieces, especially the scrummaging is the best it’s been since the late nineties. If they hang on to their own ball and provide a solid platform, they have enough creativity in the backline with Matt Giteau, Matt Toomua, and co to put outside backs such as Adam Ashley-Cooper, Henry Speight, and Israel Folau through gaps.
The Wallabies tend to perform well at World Cups. In fact the last time England hosted the event in 1991, it was the Nick Far-Jones led Australian’s who defied all odds and beat England in the final at Twickenham. Watch out for the Green and Gold.
New Zealand
I have been very critical of the All Blacks this year. Despite the fact that they pulled off a demolition job on the Aussies to defend their Bledisloe crown, the same concerns still remain. But first, I must pay tribute to a true legend of the game. All hail King Richie! A record one hundred and forty two caps and counting. What a career, that is all the most significant given that he holds a ‘win’ percentage of over 80%. He has been absolutely immense for the All Blacks over the years, and will looking to do what no Captain has done before – successfully defend a World Cup.
Steve Hansen will be delighted to have Ma’a Nonu back to his bustling best, and is almost certain to pair him with the experienced Conrad Smith. Nehe Milner-Skudder has been a real revelation since bursting into the scene, and fitness permitting, he is probably the favourite to occupy one wing with Julian Savea on the other. Aaron Smith continues to be the pivot for me. He seems to be able to transfer all that positive energy to his team mates. I thought Victor Vito also had a good game in Auckland, and it will be interesting to see which backrowers they pick in the final squad. Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam, Sam Cane, Matt Todd, Ardie Savea – they all bring something different. This is bound to be one selection headache. Another huge plus factor was Dan Carter putting in a performance that was more in keeping with the Carter of the past.
In terms of the concerns, I felt their scrum has fallen away this season. Woodcock especially looks to be struggling. This is one area the northern hemisphere sides will look to exploit. No matter how much the game has changed over the years, one fact remains – if you can’t scrum, you can’t win rugby games. I’m a bit disappointed not to see more Highlanders play in the All Black side. Perhaps the think tank feel they would be better served with experience. It remains to be see what combinations they go for – in the back row, and midfield. I still feel they haven’t quite got the blend of experience and youth right. Being the number one ranked team, they have a relatively easier group, with Argentina likely to provide the stiffest opposition. However, come the knock-out stage they will play either old nemesis France, or the red hot Ireland (now coached by compatriot Joe Schmidt) first up in the quarters. Being largely untested going into that game could play right into the hands of the opposition who will hold no punches.
South Africa
It’s been a hugely disappointing season for the Springboks, though they will draw some consolation from returning from Argentina with a win. The biggest issue is that they do not seem to know who their best side is. Even if they do, they have definitely not played a game yet together. Captain Jean de Villiers made his much awaited return only to end up on the losing side that was far below par on the day against the Pumas. And to add insult to injury, or in this case injury to insult, finds himself sidelined again with a broken jaw. It’s terribly disruptive when you’re going into a big tournament carrying injured players, especially the captain himself has question marks on fitness. Duane Vermuelen has been sadly missed, but looks set to be part of Heyneke Meyer’s squad. Experienced veterans Bismarck du Plessis, Schalk Burger, and the evergreen Victor Matfield will have a huge responsibility in anchoring the side. South African teams of the past have been successful in the past playing a particular way – smash sides up front, put over the penalties, and seize the opportunistic chance that presents itself. They are not known for much creativity, but rookies Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende have been a shot in the arm for this Springbok side. They run hard, good angles, and are strong enough to break through the first tackle. The worry is, that if fit, Captain De Villiers will probably wear the 13 shirt. Do you then shift Kriel out to the wing?
In the forwards, Eben Etzebeth and new find Lood de Jager have excelled, particularly in the loose. With Burger and Coetzee strong in the tackle area. But the Boks have to pay special attention to their game management. They lost to Australia and New Zealand this year, having been in a commanding situation in both games. However, at critical times they lacked composure and made mistakes, not to mention some bizarre substitutions as well that opened the door for the opposition to get back into the game.
Perhaps going in as underdogs will not be a bad thing. They were certainly not favourites in 1995, or in 2007, and we all know what happened.
